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As the global automotive industry accelerates its transformation to electrification, the electric vehicle market has developed rapidly in recent years and has become the focus of the industry. With technological advances and policy support, electric vehicles are rapidly penetrating into more markets and application scenarios. The following article will provide an in-depth analysis of the key data and development trends of the global electric vehicle market in 2024, revealing the latest trends and future opportunities in this field.
1. Overview of global electric vehicle sales in 2024
In 2024, the total sales of pure electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) worldwide will reach 17.79 million units, a growth rate of 25% compared to 2023. Among them, BEV sales increased by 13% to 11.29 million units; PHEV sales increased even more significantly, up 55%, totaling 6.5 million units. BEVs and PHEVs account for 20% of global light vehicle sales.
Figure 1 Global electric vehicle sales in 2024
Looking at specific models, among the world's best-selling electric vehicles in 2024, Tesla Model Y ranked first with 1.1743 million units, followed by Tesla Model 3 with 529,200 units, and BYD Seagull/Dolphin Micro BEV ranked third with 472,800 units.
Figure 2 Electric vehicle sales by model
2. Market performance varies significantly across regions
2.1 Chinese Market: Global Growth Engine
In 2024, China's plug-in electric vehicle sales will reach 11.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%, accounting for 59% of global BEV and PHEV light vehicle sales. In addition, the number of light electric vehicles produced and exported to other regions in China will also increase from 917,000 in 2023 to 1.24 million. With a complete industrial chain, strong technological innovation capabilities and huge market demand, China occupies a pivotal position in the global electric vehicle market and has become the core driving force for industry growth.
2.2 North American Market: Steady Growth
Sales of BEVs and PHEVs in North America (the United States and Canada) reached 1.84 million, up 12.6% from 2023, of which 79% were pure electric vehicles. With the increasing policy support of the US government for electric vehicles and the increasing acceptance of electric vehicles by consumers, the North American market is expected to continue to grow.
2.3 European Market: Good and Bad
In 2024, BEV and PHEV registrations in Europe (Western and Central Europe) will be slightly over 3 million, down 2% from the previous year. Sales in Germany, Europe's largest electric vehicle market, fell 18% year-on-year, while sales in the UK, the second largest market, increased 19.6%. The best-selling electric vehicles in Europe are the Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3 and Skoda Enyaq. Despite the overall decline in the European market, growth in some countries and continued consumer interest in electric vehicles have brought some vitality to the market.
2.4 Other regions: potential is beginning to emerge
In 2024, electric vehicle sales in markets such as Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico will grow rapidly, increasing by 179%, 143%, 131% and 50% respectively compared to 2023. These emerging markets are gradually becoming new hotspots for the development of the global electric vehicle industry, with huge potential in the future.
3. Market competition pattern
3.1 Market penetration rate increased, monthly sales reached a new high
In 2024, the market penetration rate of BEV and PHEV reached 20.1%, and the penetration rate of xEV (including BEV, PHEV, FCEV and other electric vehicles) was 34.3% (30.3 million vehicles out of 88.2 million vehicles). From the monthly sales trend, the sales volume in December 2024 exceeded 2 million vehicles, setting a new monthly sales record. This shows that the demand for electric vehicle market continues to be strong and consumers' enthusiasm for purchasing electric vehicles continues to rise.
Figure 3 Monthly trend of electric vehicle sales
3.2 Competition among Automakers: BYD Stands Out
In the fierce competition among major automakers, BYD performed well, surpassing Tesla with sales of 4 million vehicles and a market share of 23%. Tesla's sales were 1.79 million vehicles and its market share was 10%. In addition, GM, Geely, Volkswagen and other automakers also occupy a certain share in the electric vehicle market. Major automakers compete in this blue ocean with their respective technological advantages and market strategies.
3.3 Battery Market: Dominated by Leading Enterprises
In 2024, 870GWh of lithium-ion batteries will be installed in electric vehicles worldwide, and the top five battery manufacturers will have a combined market share of 76%. Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) ranks first with a 35% share, BYD accounts for 18%, LG Energy Solutions accounts for 13%, and Panasonic and China New Energy Aviation (CALB) also occupy a certain position in the market. The leading battery companies dominate the development of the battery market with advanced technology, stable product quality and large-scale production capacity.
4. Future market outlook
4.1 Short-term forecast (2025)
It is estimated that in 2025, the global sales of BEV and PHEV will reach 20.78 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. The sales in the Chinese market are expected to increase by 11.2% to 12.797 million units; the European market is expected to increase by 22.0% to 3.779 million units; the North American market is expected to increase by 30.5% to 2.399 million units; and the markets in other regions are expected to increase by 33.6% to 1.805 million units.
Figure 4 Electric vehicle market forecast
4.2 Long-term forecast (to 2035)
By 2030, global sales of BEVs and PHEVs are expected to reach 42 million. After that, the annual growth rate will gradually reach saturation, remaining between 10% and 20%. As the electric vehicle market continues to develop, battery demand will continue to rise, and it is expected that battery demand will exceed 1TWh in 2025 and reach 5TWh by 2035.
Figure 5 Electric vehicle market forecast to 2035
5. Conclusion
In summary, the global electric vehicle market will show significant changes and development trends in sales, market share and technological development in 2024. In the future, with the continuous advancement of technology, continued policy support and further release of market demand, the electric vehicle industry is expected to usher in a more brilliant development stage.
References
[1].EV-volumes. (2024). xEV and Battery Market Outlook
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